I have until now avoided making a public statement about my views on the various interrelated issues regarding the GNU Kind Communication Guidelines that came up over the last month.
Making the transition to the third era of natural resources managementby Nathan L. This is an ideal paper for probing the psychological anguish that accompanies the pragmatic shift in conservation paradigms forced by rapid climate change.
The author has worked in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park for 35 years, and he wrote this essay as a contribution to the National Park Service Centennial in This third era promises to overturn not only some of our most fundamental assumptions about parks and protected areas, but also many of the ideals we currently hold dear.
A common initial reaction to the diverse challenges of this transition is to feel overwhelmed and adrift; I have certainly had such feelings myself.
But these feelings carry the risk of reducing our effectiveness as resource stewards right when we can least afford to be less effective: Here I briefly examine some of the challenges of this new era, focusing on those that can most often elicit feelings of discouragement.
Recovery from this despair was gradual, with no flipping of light switches. Rather than abrupt epiphanies, I started to slowly piece together some possible new visions of the future of natural resources management in national parks.
I eventually came to accept the loss of some of the ideals of the Leopold era, and began replacing them with new ideals that were better aligned to an era of rapid global changes.
I usually hear three classes of argument against intervention: Among legal constraints on intervention, the Wilderness Act is known for setting an especially high bar, making it a particularly good example to consider. But the Wilderness Act certainly allows for intervention, and we have several examples of successful intervention in wilderness by natural resource managers, ranging from mechanical forest thinning to additions of limestone sand to counteract acidic deposition.
Existing law does not preclude our ability to intervene. I know of no way to accomplish this except through deliberate reprioritization, in which planning for the third era rises on our lists, displacing some tasks that may be urgent but less important to the long-term viability of national parks.
It is normal to feel overwhelmed, at least initially, at the prospect of managing national parks and their natural resources in an era of rapid and unprecedented global changes.
At a personal level, many of us need to grieve the passing of the Leopold era and the loss of some of its ideals, and then become secure in knowing that the broad outlines of a new vision are beginning to emerge.
Indeed, each of us can contribute to the evolution of this new vision. We do not need to figure everything out at once; we can start with small experimental steps, learning as we go.
Responding to habitat shifts resulting from climate change will be one of the considerations for the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison national forests as the Forest Service embarks on a new forest treatment project over the next eight to 12 years.
The Forest Service expects mortality in spruce stands "to continue at relatively high levels for several years to come," according to the final environmental impact statement for the project.
In the detection of new areas of aspen decline dropped considerably, but stands already affected continue to decline, and the Forest Service expects the aspen and spruce problems to be exacerbated in the future by climate change. While the new forest treatment plan is intended to also address other goals like reducing safety hazards such as falling trees and increased wildfire danger, improving forest resiliency is a key goal.
That includes trying to make the forest resilient in the face of a changing climate. He said quite a few outcomes of the management response project "could help adapt the forest to a warmer and potentially drier climate. Also by Dennis Webb, 6 August"Cycle of decline: Estimate portends big changes in makeup of forests".
Byaccording to a U. The modeling used by the Forest Service found that 52 percent of current aspen distribution across the forests would be in the lost habitat category byand 42 percent in the threatened category, "meaning it is conceivable that 94 percent of current aspen distribution may not continue into the next century," the Forest Service says in its final environmental impact statement for the project, released earlier this year.
Aspen habitat generally would be lost at low elevations, especially on south-facing slopes, with the western West Elks also sharing in that habitat loss. Some of that habitat loss could be offset by newly emerging habitat at higher elevations. Some higher elevations may not be suitable thanks to things such as poor soil conditions or rocky scree slopes.
The model projects a 22 percent loss of current spruce distribution, and that 58 percent of distribution will become threatened, meaning that 80 percent of current distribution may not continue into the next century.
The model is based on an assumption of a continuing warming trend on the forests. The statement says temperatures are expected to rise 5. Higher temperatures could foster more spruce beetle outbreaks, further stress trees because of increased drought and result in more damage from wildfire.
The Forest Service statement says that for the forests, that model was rebuilt using local data, more "topographical predictors," newer global climate models and carbon scenarios, and higher-resolution climate data. Its resulting projections are an average from three climate models and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Worrall said one of the biggest uncertainties pertains to the climate models, because there are so many models and carbon scenarios to choose from.
Interpreting the results to make them simple and easy to digest can be a little subjective, he said. Staley said the agency is compelled to use that science in its planning and efforts to manage sustainably into the future, and current research acknowledges that warming will result in shifting of not just animals but trees in terms of habitat.
Forests are always changing, thanks to factors such as insect infestation and wildfire, and cycles such as aspen thriving first in disturbed areas and later being succeeded by other types of trees.
While every generation sees a slightly different version of a forest, future forests may be ones that people have never seen locally, she said.Web-Standards in deutscher Sprache. Auf findest Du Web-Standards in deutscher Sprache.
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